Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
